A live betting playbook to exploit the highs-and-lows of in-game volatility
HC
This season, I'll be focusing on NFL games with high expected volatility and outlining actionable plans of attack for SGP construction and in-game betting.
Level-setting on SGPs:
After having some early (and surely fortunate) success with SGPs, I want to reset the room as far as expectations, as it appears there is some misconstrued discussions around this “contentious” and risky betting strategy.
SGPs, like any betting strategy, still requires an edge to win consistently overtime. Payoffs are asymmetric (risk a little, win a lot), but the absolute count of lost bets is not for those with weak stomachs (or sensitive emotionally to losses). This is part of SGP risk premium.
If familiar with DFS, there are a lot of similarities to GPPs. Generally, the best players (i.e., those with consistent edge) have demonstrated the ability to win overtime. Judah has done the last few seasons, but the mindless lottery ticket players get their bankrolls drained. This is why SGPs, should probably not be the core allocation of a well-built sportfolio (unless you prefer adrenaline and fun at the cost of bankroll sustainability).
Nonetheless, SGPs can serve a viable role in multi-strategy sportfolio. But position sizing is incredibly important (and we are working on tools to better help quantify this).
That said, we’re on to week 6, which has an interesting slate of games that hover in that 1-6 point range, likely translating into plenty of exploitable volatility.
In our Discord channel, you can find most of my more well-defined SGPs. I start to post my earliest constructions on Friday nights. And of course - always remember - do not over leverage your bankroll on any single event or theme. Be especially cautious adding legs in an SGP that are not correlated (this is a sure-fire way to ruin any +EV build you may be constructing).
NFL Week 6 SGP construction & tradable opps:
There is some material rest disadvantage for the Saints in this spot over the last 4 weeks, and Houston is getting healthier on the O-line while increasing rushing effectiveness, but I’m discounting those in this spot, due to what I’m seeing as an improvement on Saint’s offense, due to the utilization of Saint’s ideal 1, 2 punch out of the backfield, with Kamara and Miller.
Saints are allowing less than 16 points a game, are 3rd in defensive EDP and Stroud is facing a top 4-man pass rush, and with the 3rd worst EPA/play under pressure for Stroud, directionally, I can only look one way: Saints / Texans Under.
Now, all this is likely priced in, but what may not be is the offensive improvements that are starting to materialize for the Saints. Remember, this offense was supposed to be good, but hasn’t lived up to expectations, and part of the reason is play-calling/scheme, but an even bigger reason in my opinion is simply execution/rhythm. Carr is in a new offense, and his backs have been in and out from the 1st week, but now, the best playmakers are playing, his shoulder is good to go, and they are finding rhythm as of last week.
From a backfield perspective, Kamara is not only a featured back averaging 20 carries his last 5 games outside of that Bucs fall-behind, going back to the end of last year, he consistently got graded better when he had more carries, since last year, including getting 3 straight looks on 1st and goal at the 8, punching it in last week, a big vote of confidence by the coaching-staff.
Houston’s defense is grading 31st in run defense overall, and though they stifled Atlanta’s obvious running theme last week, with Taysom Hill plays sprinkled in, and Kamara/Miller being elusive out of the backfield, I don’t expect nearly the success for the Texan’s defense who are going to have to make sure Olave and Shaheed don’t beat them down the field like Atlanta's weapons, which is where the worst QB in the NFL coming in took the Texans to the woodshed last week.
One final note, CJ Stroud has excelled when given time to make plays down the field, but now he’s playing the Saints secondary, who are some of the tops in the NFL deflecting passes and creating turnover worthy plays, plus no Tank Dell. So, I expect more turnover worthy plays by Stroud who struggles on the intermediate routes and under pressure.
I’m looking to diversify on this game, betting the Saints spread up to 3, and sprinkle into alt lines/sgp leverage with Saints and Texans Under.
As of this writing, I’m not getting the correlated leverage needed to justify an SGP bet, e.g. the Book’s juice and my edge is not strong enough yet, but keying on Kamara Overs, CJ turnover, Olave Over yards with Saints winning/alt and Texans team under.
Last week, the Falcons were down 12 to 7 going into the 4th quarter, then Ridder got his all-pro level talent weapons involved, and had his best game as a pro QB, despite having some turnover worthy plays once again.
Atlanta rushed 31 times for 86 yards with their two work-horse backs, against the 2nd worst graded run defense in the league, after getting shutdown the two weeks prior vs the Jaguars and Lions. To say, the primary thing the Falcons want to do, hasn’t been working as teams key on stopping it, and letting Ridder try to beat them. Enter… Commanders on extra rest with a formidable d-line, and though only ranked 15th on the season in rush defense, they are 10th in tackling and are lined up to attack the Falcons strength after that abysmal game-plan vs the Bears on Thursday night football neutralized their own pass rush.
Not only that, but this team also played Arthur Smith’s Falcons last year, so they are familiar with this general Atlanta scheme, pulling it out 19-13. I’m expecting both teams to reign in their turnover prone QBs, and considering the Falcons are 6th in EDP defense, and Commanders need to keep getting Howell to stop holding onto the ball, we should see a lot of the Robinsons both ways, and manageable passes, to mitigate QB mistakes, expecting both teams to milk clocks and kick FGs, to limit turnover risk.
Commanders ML, Falcons Team Under
Live betting game of the week:
These teams are the least effective pass rushes in the NFL grading wise, which means Cousins and Fields could have a day, and with JJ out, it may mean we’re getting a little value in this spot on TJ/Addison, the two best weapons for Kirk in the passing game, as he and KJ Osborn have not had a strong connection this season, including leading to 2 picks.
What no one can price in right now is how exactly will Addison’s usage bump up or not, well last week he saw his highest usage at 75% and got 9 targets, catching 6, including a crucial 4th down. And that was with JJ in the game for 3 quarters. The target share for JJ playing 95+% of snaps never dipped below 9, and consistently hit 12,13,13 the first 3 weeks. Addison over his market rate 5 catches, looks to be the prop steal of the week in this type passing overs angle.
And if looking to lever up, consider TJ Hockenson to steal some of those JJ looks, and over yards even, as the coaching staff wants to get him in more space down the field, and is averaging 9 targets a game if remove the one dud vs the Panthers where he only got 3.
For added SGP leverage, there is a world Addison, for a game here and there, becomes the focal point for Kirk, as he has the separation, speed and now trust that KJ Osborn doesn’t. And it wouldn’t be the first time Kirk Cousins took a rookie WR for an explosive WR ride.
Good luck, Kings. Let's have a weekend.