This season, I'll be focusing on NFL games with high expected volatility and outlining actionable plans of attack for SGP construction and in-game betting.

As the prop markets have tightened, our net SGP exposure has likewise decreased the last few weeks. This week is no exception.

It's becoming increasingly apparent the last few weeks that a lot of the top defenses to start the season are losing steam. Many teams who dominated defensively early in the year, are average to bottom 10 in many defensive metrics the last quarter of the season. The vaunted Jets defense allowed the Commanders to storm back and nearly steal a win and then proceeded to give up almost 40 to the Browns.

I suspect a continuation of these themes into season end. Our job is to isolate the games with the most mispriced expectations of this explosive variance.

NFL Week 17 SGP construction:

The first time these teams played, the Bucs stomped the Saints 26-9 in Week 4 - but Derek Carr was coming off an injured shoulder and simply couldn't throw, missing Olave on two wide-open down field passes. Ultimately, the game got away from a crippled Saints offense that deferred to 13 dump off passes to Alvin Kamara.

This game is mostly noise.

Of course, there will be no Marshon Lattimore this week, so blanketing Mike Evans, who is generating some of the most separation of any WR this season, is going to be much tougher. I expect the Bucs to find success in the passing game and put up points (they've scored an average of 26 points/game the last 6 weeks and are 7th in explosive drive rate, generating a 20yd + play on 33% of drives).

Godwin also went over 100 yards in that earlier game vs the Saints and has been having his best string of games of the season the last few weeks (142, 104, and 96 air yards in Weeks 14-16, respectively), as he continues to find better chemistry with Baker. I want to lean into this phenomenon.

The Saints offense on the other hand should rhyme with the Falcons' uncharacteristically explosive offensive performance vs the Bucs earlier this month, when the dismal Desmond Ridder tossed 300+ yards and Drake London exploded for 175 yards - especially considering Carlton Davis, the Bucs' best and most physical corner who has been elite at preventing WR separation this season, will miss the game. This could free up Chris Olave, who has struggled against physical corners.

Further, given Todd Bowles' tendency to blitz (Bucs rank 3rd in overall blitz rate) and both Derek Carr and Chris Olave's noteworthy relative success against the blitz, can open the door for a tantalizing triple-dip of Carr/Olave/Shaheed ceiling outcomes. (P.S. check out Arjun Menon's "Scout" app for more cool offensive/defensive tendencies)

Core (+300)

• Total O 42.5

• Olave O 90 rec yds

  
  

Leverage (+1100)

• Carr O 245.5 pass yds

• Baker O 228.5 pass yds

• Godwin O 53.5 rec yds (or Evans 66.5)

  
  

Moonshot (+3400)

• Total O 42.5

• Carr O 275 pass yds

• Baker O 275 pass yds

• Godwin O 70 rec yds (or Evans 80)

• Olave O 110 rec yds

This primetime division matchup has some interesting angles to be leveraged.

In Jaren Hall's first game (first drive, really), he drove his team right down the field successfully running and passing on the stout Falcons defense - before sustaining a concussion. He hasn't been seen since. The loss of T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison is meaningful, but could be somewhat mitigated in this instance due to Hall’s elusiveness and Justin Jefferson absorbing so much space and attention down field.

Jaren Hall averaged 4.4 yards a carry on 6 carries a game in college his final year, so he may be in position to get some running lanes versus a vulnerable Packers front. Ty Chandler also appears to be the clear #1 back the team will rely on, which I expect them to do with a rookie QB behind the center.

Further, with Packers corners Jaire Alexander and Eric Stokes out, Justin Jefferson is likely going to be doubled down the field - opening up dump offs to running backs and potentially KJ Osborn and Brandon Powell (KJ went for 8/99 the first time the Vikings played the Packers).

Also noteworthy, the Packers are one of the worst teams against the run - ranking 30th in run EDP, allowing 2.2 points-per-drive on run-heavy drives. Only the Seahawks and Broncos run defenses are worse. 

On the flip side, while the Vikings defense has found a ton of success this season, Jordan Love will have his most important weapon again - Aaron Jones - fully healthy, more time in this system, and familiarity with Brian Flores' schemes.

Of course, the Vikings blitz the most in the NFL. But Jordan Love has also performed admirably vs the blitz (see Sumer Sports chart above) and has preferred targeting Jayden Reed in those spots. I expect Love to also operate more out-of-the-pocket, with some potential forced scrambles.

Finding a Love/Reed/Wicks/Kraft over-yards angle looks attractive, especially at relatively depressed prices due to perception of Vikings defense.

Core (+700)

• Hall O 25 rush yds

• Chandler O 13 rec yds

• Chandler O 80 rush yds

  
  

Leverage (+2200)

• Love O 18 rush yds

  
  

High Leverage (+5300)

• Hall U 225.5 pass yds

Good luck and Happy New Year, Kings. Let's have a boozy weekend.