This season, I'll be focusing on NFL games with high expected volatility and outlining actionable plans of attack for SGP construction and in-game betting.

SGP performance in 2023 continues to be a steller. In Week 10, we hit on our Browns +425 Core and +1400 Correlated stacks. Meanwhile, our Bucs/Titans thesis was mostly directionally right, but Deandre Hopkins was a bust and blew up otherwise strong builds, as the Bucs defense successfully limited the Titans' lone downfield weapon.

Week 11 is going to be my lightest exposure of the season, as prices are getting tighter and exploitable opportunities are becoming sparser.

NFL Week 11 SGP construction:

I'm focusing on the Cardinals and Kyler Murray this week.

The Texans defense has been as exploitable in the secondary as any this season (bottom 7 in EPA/pass allowed and bottom 3 in completion % allowed). Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow went toe-to-toe with the stunning rookie phenom CJ Stroud - but came up just short. The Texans' defensive struggles may be getting swept a bit under the rug.

The Texans continue to get bid up in the market (+4 spots in our Week 11 consensus analyst rankings to #13 overall), while the Cardinals are still being priced as a bottom 29 team. This discounts the possibility that Murray is still a top 10 QB - and meaningful upgrade from Josh Dobbs (even in spite of Dobbs' admittedly strong last couple weeks).

After rewinding the tape, Kyler looks spry, sharper than expected, and may be equipped with an underrated unit of weapons. James Connor is back, rookie TE Trey McBride has been a steal, and college teammate Hollywood Brown has the chemistry with Kyler and the wheels to take off the top. On the flip side - with Noah Brown out and Nico Collins in, we’re getting a nice opportunity on a WR who has already boomed twice this season.

Game-script 1: Cardinals upset win / Kyler blossoms, but mixed with variations

Core (+730)

• Cardinals ML

• Kyler O 269 pass yards

Spinoff non-Cardinals win scenario (+2250)

• Kyler O 33 rush yards

• Kyler O 299 pass yards

• Kyler 1 TD

Game-script 2: Shootout leaning on top playmaker alts for both teams

Core (+5000)

• Cardinals +6

• Game total O 48.5

• Kyler O 235 pass yards

• McBride O 79 yards

• Stroud O 263 pass yards

• Collins O 106 yards

Moonshot (140/1)

• Texans ML

• Kyler O 300 pass yards

• Hollywood Brown O 100 yards

• Stroud O 300 pass yards

• Dell O 100 yards

Remember when fans were actually excited for DTR to come in - even speculating that he may be an upgrade to Watson? Well, one clunker in the books and the markets seemed to have given up on his potential future upside.

But what if we get some spicy flashes of preseason DTR vs a porous Steelers defense that ranks dead last in our xDR (explosive drive rate) metric? The Steelers defense is giving up an explosive play on 41% of drives. Sheesh.

Core (+1600)

• Browns ML

• DTR O 225 yards

• Alt game total U 38.5

Leverage (+8300)

• Browns -2.5

• DTR O 250 yards

• DTR O 21 rush yards

• Alt game total U 40.5

Good luck, Kings. Let's have a weekend.

(if you missed our Saturday night Alpha Bets 'whiteboard' stream, check it out the recording below for more SGP build ideas)