"WTF"

This note is my weekly outlet to b*tch, complain, and vent about (mostly) everything that went wrong for me in the previous NFL week. My wins barely move the needle for me emotionally; but sometimes even the most innocuous losses can burn and boil my insides, lingering long into the Monday dawn.

Yeah, I'm a bit of a cry baby, but memorializing my pain may help me cope (and perhaps reveal some insightful lessons).

Week 3 teachable moments:

Be more patient; let opportunities come to you. Stop over exposing yourself to a single theme that single-handedly make-or-break the week's net pnl.

It’s still early in the season; don’t be so confident with respect to who these teams are.

Performance:

I risk approximately $100 on my bets. I cleared over $2,400 in Week 2 post-MNF, and I gave some of that back in Week 3, ending Sunday down a net $500.

All my Week 2 returns were from trading, with SGPs small losers. In Week 3, the damage would have been even worse, if not for a handful of SGP homeruns, courtesy of @contextcapper and his Sigma Bets note. Returns from pure trading were -$1,600, with $1,100 of that entirely attributable to the chasing the Jaguars prices lower and lower as another mistake-fueled game resulted in a non-competitive blowout at home to the injury-marred, rookie QB-led Texans.

Outside of the Jaguars debacle, I mostly broke-even chopping myself up across the Sunday slate with unjustified reckless abandon.

Lamentations:

Jaguars position sizing. I don’t regret the Jaguars trade, but I regret the net risk allocated to the trade.

Distraction cost me. I was so consumed with the Jaguars screen that I missed the Saints/Packers volatility entirely. I didn’t even know Carr was out of the game until about 2 minutes left in the game and, to my surprise, the Packers had somehow taken the lead.

What a whiff.

Tears:

Back-to-back weeks of major losses tied to the Jaguars has me butt hurt, and I don't know how I'm going to bet on this team again (of course, I will, but the wound is still open and fresh and I'm feeling extra pouty about this one).

The only redeeming element of my Jaguars-related trading performance was being at least mildly patient. I waited until the Jaguars fell from an open of -9 down to under a FG. This is when I reach for some alts in the -6.5 range and -7.5 range at +300 prices.

But as the Jaguars sunk lower, I kept on buying. I finally stopped at +7.5 and MLs in the +400 range.

Delusional Jags backers can make all the excuses in the world for this team and their repeated failures, but their lack of concentration, carelessness, and inattentiveness has become habitual. They put themselves in enough compromising positions to increase the probability of such “unlucky” events going against them. 

Of course, Lawrence is gifted, and he’s capable of mastering an elite offense – but he’s also error prone, and this weakness is accentuated by a miserable offensive line, ranked 29th in our preseason market consensus rankings. The defense (which was being bizarrely inflated by some after ‘stopping’ the Chiefs last week) is looking increasingly like one of the most exploitable in the league.

“Well, you still bet on them.” I did – and I’m not abandoning the idea that this team can still mature over the course the season and blossom into a top 5 offense. But there’s been no growth spurt over the offseason, and that is indeed worrying. In any case, I’m (slowly) learning that betting on this team’s upside materializing must be at the right price.

Our Circa entries were better than last week, but still haven't flirted with a clean sweep. We had a mix of Patriots (W), Lions (W), Panthers (L), Saints (W), Commanders (L), Jaguars (L), Rams (?) and Eagles (?). MNF results will be important.

Panthers loss hurts, because we were deciding on either Panthers or Colts. Both with well-known backup QBs starting on the road getting points. We picked wrong.

Commanders…well, was one of those games. They moved the ball early; Howell still flashed some beautiful throws - but he's still very raw and prone to compounding the weakness of a bad offensive line. Maybe we got a bit too enamored, too early with the Commies - but I'm not selling yet. Our Drive Quality model scores this game MUCH closer than the realized score, primarily attributable to the Bills' short fields and scores off turnovers (which are noisy and historically not predictive). Does this mean the game should have been a tie? Of course not. But it does indicate the Bills didn't necessarily prove a whole lot in this game.

Cheers, Guts, and Glory:

My best in-game bets were leaning into alt overs early in the Dolphins/Broncos game, cashing over 58.5 and 61.5 in the +200 to +300 range…but could have made way more on this than I did.

Also cashed some alt unders on the Patriots/Jets 15-10 game, but the really +900 moneymaker on under 19.5 went up in smoke on the one decent late game drive by the Jets for a TD.

I didn’t chase the Commies (who we liked) or buy the dip on the Cowboys (who ranked 15th in our offensive EDP/drive *yawn*), so NOT losing money on those I suppose was a small win.

Lost a bit on Ravens at even money; but that was worth it. What makes me mad, however, is not capitalizing on the Colts keeping it close.

Elsewhere, just overtraded and ate the juice. Put on trades with questionable levels of conviction, and I'm self-aware enough to acknowledge this was mostly fueled by the success of last week.

Rookie.

Send-off:

I’m $500 poorer after Week 3, and our Circa entries' fate will be decided tonight. If we sneak out 3-2 across the board, my Jaguars mess will have a bit less bite.

PS – GameTRADE live betting stream back this Thursday with Zach, and I’ll do my best to get online for a full Sunday slate. Let me know if you intend on joining.

Til’ next week, Kings.

(source and credit for win probability charts: www.rbsdm.com)